Showing posts with label financial planning. Show all posts
Showing posts with label financial planning. Show all posts

Tuesday, June 28, 2011

Overcoming Uncertainty (Part I)

How do you overcome financial uncertainty?  You don't (for most people).

If you want to reap the rewards of the stock market, then you will always have to live with some element of financial uncertainty.

If you invest all your money in bank certificate of deposits or US Government Bonds, you will have minimal risk and be rewarded with minimal returns (and really, a negative real return, after taxes and inflation).  Otherwise, you cannot completely overcome financial uncertainty. This is a simple, but true concept.


The role of a good financial advisor is to assist you in dealing with this financial uncertainty, so you can become comfortable with the uncertanties of the world, and financial markets, specifically.

More in part II.

This post is prompted by the the @projectdomino writer's challenge.  Today's prompt:  Overcoming Uncertainty.  "Nothing can bring you peace but yourself.  Nothing can bring you peace but the triumph of principles."  Ralph Waldo Emerson.

This a part of a challenge for bloggers and writers to post, which began on May 31. I will receive a prompt, or idea, from them each day, which may be the basis for that day's post. For more information on this, see my first post on May 31, 2011.

Sunday, June 12, 2011

Stock Market Risks: Change Your Thinking

Stock price of ABC Company:     today:            $  80

Stock price of ABC Company:     1 month ago  $ 100

Is there more risk today, at the lower price, or a month ago, at the higher price?

In today's Sunday New York Times, a commentary began: "While market risk appear to be climbing - stocks have lost ground for six consecutive weeks as the economy seems to have hit another soft patch..."

Most investors get nervous and consider markets to be riskier when prices are falling.

However, from a risk standpoint, investors would be best to consider a reverse in their psychology or how they view stock prices.

When prices decline, there is actually less future risk, as the expected future return is greater.

When prices are rising, people feel more positive about stock prices and seem more willing to invest. This type of thinking leads to the opposite of what is in their best financial interest. It emotionally feels "best," but leads to the opposite of a succinct investment philosophy:  buy low and sell high.

Part of the value of working with our firm (or other good financial advisors) is to discuss this type of emotional psychology, as it relates to investing and making financial decisions.

If you take a long-term perspective, and can view stock prices more similar to buying retail goods (want to buy something when it is on sale, not at regular retail prices), you will have a better investment experience.

Like many things in life, this may be easier said than done. It can be hard to buy stocks in a declining or turbulent market, but that decision can be very profitable in the long run.

Cite:  The Worry Meter May Overlook Some Warning Signs, New York Times, 6/12/11, Paul J. Lim

Note: This is my 9th post of the @projectdomino writer's challenge.This a challenge for bloggers and writers to post for 30 consecutive days, beginning on May 31. I will receive a prompt, or idea, from them each day, which I may use as the basis for that day's post. The above post is not based on today's Domino prompt. For more information @projectdomino, see my post on May 31, 2011.

Wednesday, June 8, 2011

Five Years: Financial Thoughts

Note: This is my 8th post of the @projectdomino writer's challenge.This a challenge for bloggers and writers to post for 30 consecutive days, beginning on May 31. I will receive a prompt, or idea, from them each day, which I may use as the basis for that day's post. For more information on this, see my post on May 31, 2011.

Many of these suggested prompts could be personal, but I'm going to write this one based on being a financial advisor.

Prompt: What would you say to the person you were 5 years ago? What will you say to the person you'll be in five years?

Do you see the pattern that follows?

5 years ago, June 2006:  What advice would I give now, to myself, for 2006?

Provide financial advice to your clients that is always in their best interest.

Be sure that your clients have well diversified portfolios, based on their personal need, ability and willingness to take risk.

A portfolio of stocks should be globally diversified, which means that there should be a significant allocation to international stocks, emerging markets, small company stocks, as well as real estate. A diversified portfolio is not just the S&P 500 index fund.

Remember that over time, the vast majority of mutual funds and money managers do not beat their benchmarks.

Do not take risk with bonds. Only buy very high quality. Reaching for higher yielding, but less quality bonds, is not a good practice. Fixed income is the place to be very safe.

Expect the unexpected, and plan for it. Talk to your clients about bad markets as well as good markets.

Assist your clients in remaining disciplined, especially during down markets. If they do this, they will be well rewarded, after a market downturn, when the market rebounds.

It is impossible to accurately time the market. It is almost impossible to be right twice, as to when to sell (get out of the market) and then again (when to buy back into the market).

Rebalancing is crucial to long term success. When an asset class does well, sell some of it. Use the money to buy an asset class that has not done as well. This leads to buying low and selling high.

Plan with your clients (and have a simple written document), so your clients can achieve a sense of financial comfort and security.

Buy individual bonds or CDs of very high quality, only, which will work well if interest rates rise or fall. Bond mutual funds will not do well if interest rates rise.

5 years in the future, June 2016: What advice would I give now, to myself, for 2016?



Provide financial advice to your clients that is always in their best interest.

Be sure that your clients have well diversified portfolios, based on their personal need, ability and willingness to take risk.

A portfolio of stocks should be globally diversified, which means that there should be a significant allocation to international stocks, emerging markets, small company stocks, as well as real estate. A diversified portfolio is not just the S&P 500 index fund.

Remember that over time, the vast majority of mutual funds and money managers do not beat their benchmarks.

Do not take risk with bonds. Only buy very high quality. Reaching for higher yielding, but less quality bonds, is not a good practice. Fixed income is the place to be very safe.

Expect the unexpected, and plan for it. Talk to your clients about bad markets as well as good markets.

Assist your clients in remaining disciplined, especially during down markets. If they do this, they will be well rewarded, after a market downturn, when the market rebounds.

It is impossible to accurately time the market. It is almost impossible to be right twice, as to when to sell (get out of the market) and then again (when to buy back into the market).

Rebalancing is crucial to long term success. When an asset class does well, sell some of it. Use the money to buy an asset class that has not done as well. This leads to buying low and selling high.

Plan with your clients (and have a simple written document), so your clients can achieve a sense of financial comfort and security.

Buy individual bonds or CDs of very high quality, only, which will work well if interest rates rise or fall. Bond mutual funds will not do well if interest rates rise.

Conclusion:  Do you see the pattern? 

Monday, June 6, 2011

A Diamond Lost Hurts All of Us

This post is my 7th entry since I started the Blogger Challenge on May 31. I was planning to write on a  @projectdomino prompt tonight, but I read something more important in the New York Times online.

Unfortunately, due to poor decisions by a number of Republican Senators, a Nobel Prize winning economist is withdrawing his nomination to the Federal Reserve. Peter Diamond, nominated by President Obama, wrote an OpEd piece in the New York Times, announcing these intentions ("When a Nobel Prize Isn't Enoughhttp://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/06/opinion/06diamond.html?_r=1&src=ISMR_HP_LO_MST_FB .

This is a huge loss for our country. It represents politics over skill and experience, which is very sad, given the urgent issues which face our country. Mr. Diamond is an expert on structural unemployment and the Social Security system. Those are two of the most important issues that need to be addressed by the Federal Reserve, and our country in general.  Having an expert on these issues on the Fed would provide Diamond with a voice to be heard, to set the national agenda in working on these matters.

Yet this highly esteemed MIT professor has been deemed "unqualified" by a number of Senators, particularly Senator Shelby of Alabama. Shelby cites his lack of experience in developing monetary policy. The Federal Reserve should be the "best and brightest" of our nation's economists, working together to address critical economic issues. His areas of expertise are vitally important to developing the foundations of monetary policy.

The Federal Reserve is missing a number of members. This is unfortunate and hopefully the vacant positions will be filled with other, very well qualified people.

Sunday, June 5, 2011

Financial Perspective Today: Blogger Challenge Day 5

Today, I've decided not to use the @projectdomino suggested prompt topic and to write about something I feel more passionate about.


To be successful in investing and build long-term wealth, one must have the proper perspective and frame of mind.

The financial markets have been choppy recently, particularly since the beginning of May. As we discuss financial matters with clients and prospects, many raise similar concerns.

People are concerned about many things: the economy in general, the price of oil, the US budget deficit and the national debt, overseas debt levels, unemployment levels, inflation, interest rates, etc. We share these concerns.

Some people look at all these problems and "decide" not to invest or make financial decisions now. This is not in their long-term best interest. As advisors, we recognize and try to emphasize the following perspectives:

We are realists, meaning that we understand these concerns, but are also long-term optimists. We realize that we cannot control these issues. We focus on the things we can control for our clients. However, we know that the US economy and the world in general can be very resilient, in the long run. Things tend to work out, over time. Consider the days and months after 9/11. We all shared huge concerns. Over the years, those fears lessened and travel and the economy rebounded. Resiliency.

We cannot predict the future. Thus, we cannot accurately predict the price of oil 3 months, 6 months, or 2 years from now. Thus, we cannot and do not make investment recommendations based on things that we cannot forecast.

We talk with our clients extensively, about any financial concerns they may have, both personal to them and/or these other outside factors. We then develop a financial plan and asset allocation policy that is appropriate for their personal circumstances. This helps them to move from "inaction" due to external factors to having a plan that they are comfortable with. This provides them with the ability to move forward, so they can be financially secure, and sleep well at night.

The facts prove that this is a good strategy, if you have the proper perspective and discipline. Staying on the stock market sidelines has not been a good strategy, if compared to a properly globally diversified portfolio.

The following figures may provide helpful perspective. These are for the S & P 500, which is an index of 500 large US companies. This is not a globally diversified portfolio, but useful to review.

2 years ago, June 2009        925

1 year ago, June, 2010     1,040

6 months ago                   1,220

June, 2011                      1,300


(Note: The above information for the S&P 500 is for illustrative purposes only and does not represent the financial performance of our firm or our clients.)

Wednesday, June 1, 2011

Financial Planning in One Sentence (Day 2)

Note:  This is my 2nd post of the @projectdomino writer's challenge.This a challenge for bloggers and writers to post for 30 consecutive days, beginning on May 31. I will receive a prompt, or idea, from them each day, which may be the basis for that day's post. For more information on this, see my post on May 31, 2011.


Today's blog post prompt: describe today in only one sentence.

Do the right thing.

This is written on my firm's business card. It represents our values as a firm, our values with our clients and the decisions we make on their behalf.  It is part of the professionals we choose to affiliate and collaborate with, and my personal values.

While I try to do the right thing, I also recognize that I have made mistakes, both personally and professionally. We all have. I have apologized when appropriate. I have taken ownership and moved forward, as that is the only way we can all exist and progress.

In term's of my client relationships, "doing the right thing" is a core principle. I was recently given a wonderful book, which I highly recommend, about the life lessons of Nelson Mandela (Mandela's Way, Fifteen Lessons on Life, Love, and Courage by Richard Stengel). One of these lessons is to have one or a few core principles, which should always be adhered to. There may be other strategies or aspects that may be modified, but we must each choose some core beliefs which are unwavering.

For my firm, this concept translates to how we make decisions and provide our advice. The client's interest always comes first. Legally, we have a fiduciary responsibility to our clients. Traditional stock brokers do not adhere to this standard.

We believe (and academic research strongly supports) that active money managers do not add value and they cannot be identified, in advance, consistently, over a long period of time. We believe in global diversification. We believe in diversification for both stocks as well as bonds and CDs. We recognize that we cannot predict the future and we do not have a crystal ball.

I also want to emphasize the word "do." We are doing. We are growing, personally and professionally. We are active in our community. We are learning. We are reading. We are attending seminars and conferences. We are interacting with others through social media. We are planning. We are meeting with current and new client prospects.

And we are thankful that "doing the right thing" results in good things.

#Trust30

Financial planning: 15 Minutes to Live (Day 1)

This is my first post of the @projectdomino writer's challenge.This a challenge for bloggers and writers to post for 30 consecutive days, beginning on May 31. I will receive a prompt, or idea, from them each day, which may be the basis for that day's post.  For more information on this, see my first post on May 31, 2011.

The prompt: I just discovered I have 15 minutes to live. (and 15 minutes to write)

Fortunately, this is purely hypothetical.

Obviously, my first thought is of my family, relatives and friends. I am secure knowing that my children will be well taken care of. I am comforted that I have planned properly, I have adequate life insurance and estate planning documents which are in place, so they will be OK financially. I'm glad that I have practiced what I have preached to my clients.

I have left my children with a legacy of good values and have been privileged to have shared with them many wonderful life experiences. I have been very actively involved in many charitable organizations, and those institutions will benefit in the future from both the time that I have spent being a leader, as well as the legacy gifts that are part of my estate plan.

In terms of my business, I am again comforted to know that my clients will be well taken care of by my wonderful partner, Keith Rybak, as well as our collaborative partners, BAM Advisor Services and DFA mutual funds. As Keith and I meet with clients together, he knows them well. My clients will benefit from that consistent practice that we have adhered to.

As importantly, all of our clients have written Investment Policy Statements, so their goals and investment allocations are clearly documented, and not just in my head. There should be no need for any sudden changes due to this hypothetical event.

I am further comforted by knowing that I have provided good, long term investment planning for my clients, and they will be financially secure if they continue to adhere to the philosophies we have in place.

If this was real, and fortunately it is not, I would feel that I have been very fortunate to have had a wonderful family, I have left my children with a better life than I started with, that I was able to travel and grow a business. I have regrets. We all would at a time like this. I have made mistakes. I am very human. And I didn't get to see Michigan in the Rose Bowl.  I will now get to discuss with Bo the concept of "Those Who Stay Will Be Champions." 

As this is not real, I will continue to pursue my goals, and continue to champion my values and pursuits.

#trust30

Tuesday, May 31, 2011

Financial Blog Writing Challenge: The Beginning

My goal with this blog has been to write, with the purpose of educating and sharing information which would be relevant to clients and prospective clients. Up to now, I have written occasionally, but not with any specific quantitative goals.

Today, I'm committing to a new challenge, or opportunity, based on one of the people I read and respect the most, Seth Godin.  His organization, @ProjectDomino, is starting a 30 day challenge for bloggers and other writers to create content for each of the next 30 days. I'm going to give it a shot!

Each day, I'll be receiving a prompt from @ProjectDomino, which will provide a guide on this "writing journey."  It is to create "an opportunity to reflect on your now, and to create direction for your future."

So, these posts may be business or financial related, or they may be more personal. I am probably going to try to tie in their prompts with wealth management and financial planning, but I'm not really sure.

When you start a journey, or try a new experiment, you don't know where it leads. But new opportunities are the key to so many things.....I am willing to try this.

#trust30  For those of you not on Twitter, that is the hashtag, or way that others on Twitter can follow the posts of people who are participating in this project. My twitter name is @wassermanwealth